The succession of ecological divergence and reproductive isolation in adaptive radiations.

Adaptive radiation is a major source of biodiversity but the way in which known components of ecological opportunity, ecological differentiation, and reproductive isolation underpin such biodiversity patterns remains elusive. Much is known about the evolution of ecological differentiation and reproductive isolation during single speciation events, but exactly how those processes scale up to complete adaptive radiations is less understood. Do we expect complete reproductive barriers between newly formed species before the ecological differentiation continues, or does proper species formation occur much later, long after the ecological diversification? Our goal is to improve our mechanistic understanding of adaptive radiations by analyzing an individual-based model that includes a suite of mechanisms that are known to contribute to biodiversity. The model includes variable biogeographic settings, ecological opportunities, and types of mate choice, which makes several different scenarios of an adaptive radiation possible. We find that evolving clades tend to exploit ecological opportunities early whereas reproductive barriers evolve later, demonstrating a decoupling of ecological differentiation and species formation. In many cases, we also find a long-term trend where assortative mating associated with ecological traits is replaced by sexual selection of neutral display traits as the primary mechanism for reproductive isolation. Our results propose that reticulate phylogenies are likely common and stem from initially low reproductive barriers, rather than the previously suggested idea of repeated hybridization events between well-separated species.

Evolutionary plant-pollinator responses to anthropogenic land-use change: impacts on ecosystem services.

Agricultural intensification at field and landscape scales, including increased use of agrochemicals and loss of semi-natural habitats, is a major driver of insect declines and other community changes. Efforts to understand and mitigate these effects have traditionally focused on ecological responses. At the same time, adaptations to pesticide use and habitat fragmentation in both insects and flowering plants show the potential for rapid evolution. Yet we lack an understanding of how such evolutionary responses may propagate within and between trophic levels with ensuing consequences for conservation of species and ecological functions in agroecosystems. Here, we review the literature on the consequences of agricultural intensification on plant and animal evolutionary responses and interactions. We present a novel conceptualization of evolutionary change induced by agricultural intensification at field and landscape scales and emphasize direct and indirect effects of rapid evolution on ecosystem services. We exemplify by focusing on economically and ecologically important interactions between plants and pollinators. We showcase available eco-evolutionary theory and plant-pollinator modelling that can improve predictions of how agricultural intensification affects interaction networks, and highlight available genetic and trait-focused methodological approaches. Specifically, we focus on how spatial genetic structure affects the probability of propagated responses, and how the structure of interaction networks modulates effects of evolutionary change in individual species. Thereby, we highlight how combined trait-based eco-evolutionary modelling, functionally explicit quantitative genetics, and genomic analyses may shed light on conditions where evolutionary responses impact important ecosystem services.

Archetype models upscale understanding of natural pest control response to land-use change.

Control of crop pests by shifting host plant availability and natural enemy activity at landscape scales has great potential to enhance the sustainability of agriculture. However, mainstreaming natural pest control requires improved understanding of how its benefits can be realized across a variety of agroecological contexts. Empirical studies suggest significant but highly variable responses of natural pest control to land-use change. Current ecological models are either too specific to provide insight across agroecosystems or too generic to guide management with actionable predictions. We suggest obtaining the full benefit of available empirical, theoretical, and methodological knowledge by combining trait-mediated understanding from correlative studies with the explicit representation of causal relationships achieved by mechanistic modeling. To link these frameworks, we adapt the concept of archetypes, or context-specific generalizations, from sustainability science. Similar responses of natural pest control to land-use gradients across cases that share key attributes, such as functional traits of focal organisms, indicate general processes that drive system behavior in a context-sensitive manner. Based on such observations of natural pest control, a systematic definition of archetypes can provide the basis for mechanistic models of intermediate generality that cover all major agroecosystems worldwide. Example applications demonstrate the potential for upscaling understanding and improving predictions of natural pest control, based on knowledge transfer and scientific synthesis. A broader application of this mechanistic archetype approach promises to enhance ecology's contribution to natural resource management across diverse regions and social-ecological contexts.

Ecological opportunity and adaptive radiations reveal eco-evolutionary perspectives on community structure in competitive communities.

It is well known that ecological and evolutionary processes act in concert while shaping biological communities. Diversification can, for example, arise through ecological opportunity and adaptive radiations and competition play an essential role in such diversification. Eco-evolutionary components of competition are thus important for our understanding of community assembly. Such understanding in turn facilitates interpretation of trait- and phylogenetic community patterns in the light of the processes that shape them. Here, I investigate the link between competition, diversification, and trait- and phylogenetic- community patterns using a trait-based model of adaptive radiations. I evaluate the paradigm that competition is an ecological process that drives large trait- and phylogenetic community distances through limiting similarity. Contrary to the common view, I identify low or in some cases counterintuitive relationships between competition and mean phylogenetic distances due to diversification late in evolutionary time and peripheral parts of niche space when competition is weak. Community patterns as a function of competition also change as diversification progresses as the relationship between competition and trait similarity among species can flip from positive to negative with time. The results thus provide novel perspectives on community assembly and emphasize the importance of acknowledging eco-evolutionary processes when interpreting community data.

gen3sis: A general engine for eco-evolutionary simulations of the processes that shape Earth's biodiversity.

Understanding the origins of biodiversity has been an aspiration since the days of early naturalists. The immense complexity of ecological, evolutionary, and spatial processes, however, has made this goal elusive to this day. Computer models serve progress in many scientific fields, but in the fields of macroecology and macroevolution, eco-evolutionary models are comparatively less developed. We present a general, spatially explicit, eco-evolutionary engine with a modular implementation that enables the modeling of multiple macroecological and macroevolutionary processes and feedbacks across representative spatiotemporally dynamic landscapes. Modeled processes can include species' abiotic tolerances, biotic interactions, dispersal, speciation, and evolution of ecological traits. Commonly observed biodiversity patterns, such as α, ß, and γ diversity, species ranges, ecological traits, and phylogenies, emerge as simulations proceed. As an illustration, we examine alternative hypotheses expected to have shaped the latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG) during the Earth's Cenozoic era. Our exploratory simulations simultaneously produce multiple realistic biodiversity patterns, such as the LDG, current species richness, and range size frequencies, as well as phylogenetic metrics. The model engine is open source and available as an R package, enabling future exploration of various landscapes and biological processes, while outputs can be linked with a variety of empirical biodiversity patterns. This work represents a key toward a numeric, interdisciplinary, and mechanistic understanding of the physical and biological processes that shape Earth's biodiversity.

Species multidimensional effects explain idiosyncratic responses of communities to environmental change.

Environmental change can alter species' abundances within communities consistently; for example, increasing all abundances by the same percentage, or more idiosyncratically. Here, we show how comparing effects of temperature on species grown in isolation and when grown together helps our understanding of how ecological communities more generally respond to environmental change. In particular, we find that the shape of the feasibility domain (the parameter space of carrying capacities compatible with positive species' abundances) helps to explain the composition of experimental microbial communities under changing environmental conditions. First, we introduce a measure to quantify the asymmetry of a community's feasibility domain using the column vectors of the corresponding interaction matrix. These column vectors describe the effects each species has on all other species in the community (hereafter referred to as species' multidimensional effects). We show that as the asymmetry of the feasibility domain increases the relationship between species' abundance when grown together and when grown in isolation weakens. We then show that microbial communities experiencing different temperature environments exhibit patterns consistent with this theory. Specifically, communities at warmer temperatures show relatively more asymmetry; thus, the idiosyncrasy of responses is higher compared with that in communities at cooler temperatures. These results suggest that while species' interactions are typically defined at the pairwise level, multispecies dynamics can be better understood by focusing on the effects of these interactions at the community level.

Ecological opportunity and upward prey-predator radiation cascades.

A general goal in community ecology and evolutionary biology is to understand how diversity has arisen. In our attempts to reach such goals we become increasingly aware of interacting ecological and evolutionary processes shaping biodiversity. Ecological opportunity and adaptive radiations can, for example, drive diversification in competitive communities but little is known about how such processes propagate through trophic levels in adaptive radiation cascades. I use an eco-evolutionary model of trait-based ecological interactions and micro-evolutionary processes to investigate the macro-evolutionary aspects of predator diversification in such cascades. Prey diversification facilitates predator radiation through predator feeding opportunity and disruptive selection. Predator radiation, however, often disconnects from the prey radiation as the diversification progresses. Only when predators have an intermediate niche width, high predatory efficiency, and high evolutionary potential can radiation cascades be maintained over macro-evolutionary time scales. These results provide expectations for predator response to prey divergence and insight into eco-evolutionary feedbacks between trophic levels. Such expectations are crucial for future studies that aim for a better understanding of how diversity is generated and maintained in complex communities.

A Minimal Model for the Latitudinal Diversity Gradient Suggests a Dominant Role for Ecological Limits.

The latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG) is one of Earth's most iconic biodiversity patterns and still one of the most debated. Explanations for the LDG are often categorized into three broad pathways in which the diversity gradient is created by (1) differential diversification rates, (2) differential carrying capacities (ecological limits), or (3) differential time to accumulate species across latitude. Support for these pathways has, however, been mostly verbally expressed. Here, we present a minimal model to clarify the essential assumptions of the three pathways and explore the sensitivity of diversity dynamics to these pathways. We find that an LDG arises most easily from a gradient in ecological limits compared with a gradient in the time for species accumulation or diversification rate in most modeled scenarios. Differential diversification rates create a stronger LDG than ecological limits only when speciation and dispersal rates are low, but then the predicted LDG seems weaker than the observed LDG. Moreover, range dynamics may reduce an LDG created by a gradient in diversification rates or time for species accumulation, but they cannot reduce an LDG induced by differential ecological limits. We conclude that our simple model provides a null prediction for the effectiveness of the three LDG pathways and can thus aid discussions about the causal mechanisms underlying the LDG or motivate more complex models to confirm or falsify our findings.

The Latitudinal Diversity Gradient: Novel Understanding through Mechanistic Eco-evolutionary Models.

The latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG) is one of the most widely studied patterns in ecology, yet no consensus has been reached about its underlying causes. We argue that the reasons for this are the verbal nature of existing hypotheses, the failure to mechanistically link interacting ecological and evolutionary processes to the LDG, and the fact that empirical patterns are often consistent with multiple explanations. To address this issue, we synthesize current LDG hypotheses, uncovering their eco-evolutionary mechanisms, hidden assumptions, and commonalities. Furthermore, we propose mechanistic eco-evolutionary modeling and an inferential approach that makes use of geographic, phylogenetic, and trait-based patterns to assess the relative importance of different processes for generating the LDG.

Biodiversity increases and decreases ecosystem stability.

Losses and gains in species diversity affect ecological stability1-7 and the sustainability of ecosystem functions and services8-13. Experiments and models have revealed positive, negative and no effects of diversity on individual components of stability, such as temporal variability, resistance and resilience2,3,6,11,12,14. How these stability components covary remains poorly understood15. Similarly, the effects of diversity on overall ecosystem stability16, which is conceptually akin to ecosystem multifunctionality17,18, remain unknown. Here we studied communities of aquatic ciliates to understand how temporal variability, resistance and overall ecosystem stability responded to diversity (that is, species richness) in a large experiment involving 690 micro-ecosystems sampled 19 times over 40 days, resulting in 12,939 samplings. Species richness increased temporal stability but decreased resistance to warming. Thus, two stability components covaried negatively along the diversity gradient. Previous biodiversity manipulation studies rarely reported such negative covariation despite general predictions of the negative effects of diversity on individual stability components3. Integrating our findings with the ecosystem multifunctionality concept revealed hump- and U-shaped effects of diversity on overall ecosystem stability. That is, biodiversity can increase overall ecosystem stability when biodiversity is low, and decrease it when biodiversity is high, or the opposite with a U-shaped relationship. The effects of diversity on ecosystem multifunctionality would also be hump- or U-shaped if diversity had positive effects on some functions and negative effects on others. Linking the ecosystem multifunctionality concept and ecosystem stability can transform the perceived effects of diversity on ecological stability and may help to translate this science into policy-relevant information.

Contrasting prevalence of selection and drift in the community structuring of bacteria and microbial eukaryotes.

Whether or not communities of microbial eukaryotes are structured in the same way as bacteria is a general and poorly explored question in ecology. Here, we investigated this question in a set of planktonic lake microbiotas in Eastern Antarctica that represent a natural community ecology experiment. Most of the analysed lakes emerged from the sea during the last 6000 years, giving rise to waterbodies that originally contained marine microbiotas and that subsequently evolved into habitats ranging from freshwater to hypersaline. We show that habitat diversification has promoted selection driven by the salinity gradient in bacterial communities (explaining ∼ 72% of taxa turnover), while microeukaryotic counterparts were predominantly structured by ecological drift (∼72% of the turnover). Nevertheless, we also detected a number of microeukaryotes with specific responses to salinity, indicating that albeit minor, selection has had a role in the structuring of specific members of their communities. In sum, we conclude that microeukaryotes and bacteria inhabiting the same communities can be structured predominantly by different processes. This should be considered in future studies aiming to understand the mechanisms that shape microbial assemblages.

Ecological opportunity and predator-prey interactions: linking eco-evolutionary processes and diversification in adaptive radiations.

Much of life's diversity has arisen through ecological opportunity and adaptive radiations, but the mechanistic underpinning of such diversification is not fully understood. Competition and predation can affect adaptive radiations, but contrasting theoretical and empirical results show that they can both promote and interrupt diversification. A mechanistic understanding of the link between microevolutionary processes and macroevolutionary patterns is thus needed, especially in trophic communities. Here, we use a trait-based eco-evolutionary model to investigate the mechanisms linking competition, predation and adaptive radiations. By combining available micro-evolutionary theory and simulations of adaptive radiations we show that intraspecific competition is crucial for diversification as it induces disruptive selection, in particular in early phases of radiation. The diversification rate is however decreased in later phases owing to interspecific competition as niche availability, and population sizes are decreased. We provide new insight into how predation tends to have a negative effect on prey diversification through decreased population sizes, decreased disruptive selection and through the exclusion of prey from parts of niche space. The seemingly disparate effects of competition and predation on adaptive radiations, listed in the literature, may thus be acting and interacting in the same adaptive radiation at different relative strength as the radiation progresses.

Community trait overdispersion due to trophic interactions: concerns for assembly process inference.

The expected link between competitive exclusion and community trait overdispersion has been used to infer competition in local communities, and trait clustering has been interpreted as habitat filtering. Such community assembly process inference has received criticism for ignoring trophic interactions, as competition and trophic interactions might create similar trait patterns. While other theoretical studies have generally demonstrated the importance of predation for coexistence, ours provides the first quantitative demonstration of such effects on assembly process inference, using a trait-based ecological model to simulate the assembly of a competitive primary consumer community with and without the influence of trophic interactions. We quantified and contrasted trait dispersion/clustering of the competitive communities with the absence and presence of secondary consumers. Trophic interactions most often decreased trait clustering (i.e. increased dispersion) in the competitive communities due to evenly distributed invasions of secondary consumers and subsequent competitor extinctions over trait space. Furthermore, effects of trophic interactions were somewhat dependent on model parameters and clustering metric. These effects create considerable problems for process inference from trait distributions; one potential solution is to use more process-based and inclusive models in inference.

The Biogeography of Adaptive Radiations and the Geographic Overlap of Sister Species.

The biogeography of speciation and what can be learned about the past mode of speciation from current biogeography of sister species are recurrent problems in evolution. We used a trait- and individual-based, eco-evolutionary model to simulate adaptive radiations and recorded the geographical overlap of species during and after evolutionary branching (speciation). We compared the spatial overlap among sister species in the fully saturated community with the overlap at the speciation event. The mean geographic overlap at speciation varied continuously from complete (sympatry) to none (allopatry), depending on local and regional environmental heterogeneity and the rate of dispersal. The distribution of overlap was, however, in some cases considerably bimodal. This tendency was most expressed at large values of regional heterogeneity, corresponding to sharp environmental contrasts. The mean geographic overlap also varied during the course of a radiation, sometimes with a consistent negative trend over time. The speciations that resulted in currently observable end community sister species were therefore not an unbiased sample of all speciations throughout the radiation. Postspeciation range shifts (causing increased overlap) occurred most frequently when dispersal was high or when local habitat heterogeneity was low. Our results help us understand how the patterns of geographic mode of speciation emerge. We also show the difficulty in inferring the geographical speciation mode from phylogenies and the biogeography of extant species.

The ecological forecast horizon, and examples of its uses and determinants.

Forecasts of ecological dynamics in changing environments are increasingly important, and are available for a plethora of variables, such as species abundance and distribution, community structure and ecosystem processes. There is, however, a general absence of knowledge about how far into the future, or other dimensions (space, temperature, phylogenetic distance), useful ecological forecasts can be made, and about how features of ecological systems relate to these distances. The ecological forecast horizon is the dimensional distance for which useful forecasts can be made. Five case studies illustrate the influence of various sources of uncertainty (e.g. parameter uncertainty, environmental variation, demographic stochasticity and evolution), level of ecological organisation (e.g. population or community), and organismal properties (e.g. body size or number of trophic links) on temporal, spatial and phylogenetic forecast horizons. Insights from these case studies demonstrate that the ecological forecast horizon is a flexible and powerful tool for researching and communicating ecological predictability. It also has potential for motivating and guiding agenda setting for ecological forecasting research and development.

Major histocompatibility complex class II compatibility, but not class I, predicts mate choice in a bird with highly developed olfaction.

Mate choice for major histocompatibility complex (MHC) compatibility has been found in several taxa, although rarely in birds. MHC is a crucial component in adaptive immunity and by choosing an MHC-dissimilar partner, heterozygosity and potentially broad pathogen resistance is maximized in the offspring. The MHC genotype influences odour cues and preferences in mammals and fish and hence olfactory-based mate choice can occur. We tested whether blue petrels, Halobaena caerulea, choose partners based on MHC compatibility. This bird is long-lived, monogamous and can discriminate between individual odours using olfaction, which makes it exceptionally well suited for this analysis. We screened MHC class I and II B alleles in blue petrels using 454-pyrosequencing and quantified the phylogenetic, functional and allele-sharing similarity between individuals. Partners were functionally more dissimilar at the MHC class II B loci than expected from random mating (p = 0.033), whereas there was no such difference at the MHC class I loci. Phylogenetic and non-sequence-based MHC allele-sharing measures detected no MHC dissimilarity between partners for either MHC class I or II B. Our study provides evidence of mate choice for MHC compatibility in a bird with a high dependency on odour cues, suggesting that MHC odour-mediated mate choice occurs in birds.

Phylogenetic analysis suggests that habitat filtering is structuring marine bacterial communities across the globe.

The phylogenetic structure and community composition were analysed in an existing data set of marine bacterioplankton communities to elucidate the evolutionary and ecological processes dictating the assembly. The communities were sampled from coastal waters at nine locations distributed worldwide and were examined through the use of comprehensive clone libraries of 16S ribosomal RNA genes. The analyses show that the local communities are phylogenetically different from each other and that a majority of them are phylogenetically clustered, i.e. the species (operational taxonomic units) were more related to each other than expected by chance. Accordingly, the local communities were assembled non-randomly from the global pool of available bacterioplankton. Further, the phylogenetic structures of the communities were related to the water temperature at the locations. In agreement with similar studies, including both macroorganisms and bacteria, these results suggest that marine bacterial communities are structured by "habitat filtering", i.e. through non-random colonization and invasion determined by environmental characteristics. Different bacterial types seem to have different ecological niches that dictate their survival in different habitats. Other eco-evolutionary processes that may contribute to the observed phylogenetic patterns are discussed. The results also imply a mapping between phenotype and phylogenetic relatedness which facilitates the use of community phylogenetic structure analysis to infer ecological and evolutionary assembly processes.

Recruitment of members from the rare biosphere of marine bacterioplankton communities after an environmental disturbance.

A bacterial community may be resistant to environmental disturbances if some of its species show metabolic flexibility and physiological tolerance to the changing conditions. Alternatively, disturbances can change the composition of the community and thereby potentially affect ecosystem processes. The impact of disturbance on the composition of bacterioplankton communities was examined in continuous seawater cultures. Bacterial assemblages from geographically closely connected areas, the Baltic Sea (salinity 7 and high dissolved organic carbon [DOC]) and Skagerrak (salinity 28 and low DOC), were exposed to gradual opposing changes in salinity and DOC over a 3-week period such that the Baltic community was exposed to Skagerrak salinity and DOC and vice versa. Denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis and clone libraries of PCR-amplified 16S rRNA genes showed that the composition of the transplanted communities differed significantly from those held at constant salinity. Despite this, the growth yields (number of cells ml(-1)) were similar, which suggests similar levels of substrate utilization. Deep 454 pyrosequencing of 16S rRNA genes showed that the composition of the disturbed communities had changed due to the recruitment of phylotypes present in the rare biosphere of the original community. The study shows that members of the rare biosphere can become abundant in a bacterioplankton community after disturbance and that those bacteria can have important roles in maintaining ecosystem processes.